Manipur Under Siege : Imminent need for Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act
Monday, 4 December 2023
Introduction
India's northeastern state of Manipur has been once regarded as the gateway to the South East Asia and accordingly, it remained a crucial factor for the Government of India's flagship Act East Policy. However, ever since the riot started in the state in May 2023, there has been almost no signs of recovery to normalcy. The situation has been worsening and the ground gained for normalcy by the security forces over past few decades seems to have almost diminished with little or no state control over the alw and order situation. The most recent threat comes to the law and order situation comes from the increasing incidents of radicalisation and polarisation in the society which has given some sort of legitimacy status to armed militias that are now capable to assert their control over broad political spectrum of the state. The Indian Army has well highlighted the challenges posed by the social organisations in the past to the law and order situation in the state. However, there seems to be to no end anytime soon to such miseries for the common populace in Manipur.
Intel warns about capabilities of armed groups controlling Manipur
The District Administration of Imphal West informed that Arambai Tenggol, a mass supported Meitei radical militia group had summoned 40 MLAs of the Imphal Valley District to the Kangla Fort to take an oath supervised by the President of the Arambai Tenggol. Acting on the input, the District Administration made elaborate security arrangements anticipating that members of the militia will attempt to enter the aforesaid fort. Interestingly, the security forces deployed in the arrangements could not prevent the militia outfit from entering the fort and the oath was administered. Photographs shared by the aforesaid militia group on its social media page showed the signature of 39 MLAs including the Chief Minister N. Biren Singh. It has been anticipated that he did not take part in the oath ceremony but signed later with certain plea. It was learnt that the CM signed the Six Point Agreement of the militia outfit with a plea that the border town of Moreh and peripheral areas of Imphal valley had witnessed high levels of violence resulting in loss of lives of civilians and security forces over the past forty five days.
This apparent move of the radical militia outfit of summoning elected members of legislative assembly is being screened from various lenses by different security establishments. The nature and the intent of the militia is being discussed on the lines that such summoning could’ve been avoided and in fact the mere demand of consideration for proposal agreement could have been submitted to the CM who could’ve forwarded it to the Government of India for further consideration. In fact, this act of summoning the elected members has already sent waves of uneasiness across the state where many ethnic communities are at the risk of feeling alienated and underrepresented.
Existing situation raises alarms for resurgence of insurgent outfits
Ever since the communal clashes broke out in the Manipur, it has been observed that both the communities are attempting to propagate a broader message of victimisation by the other at the same time when they are pushing hard to gain supremacy over the other. The oath taking ceremony organised by the radical outfit is thus being viewed by observers as an attempt by various previously banned and newly formed Meitei radical outfits to gain supremacy of narrative over other ethnic communities based in Manipur. This had been also signalled from their recent demand of removal of The Assam Rifles from the state which was the line already taken by Meira Pabis in the past.
In this context, it is worth mentioning that the solution proposed by such organisations suggests to replace the major paramilitary force operating in the region- The Assam Rifles with another Central Armed Police Force having a neutral stance on the ongoing situation. However, it must be understood that the ongoing conflict is way more complex than it appears due a number of dynamic factors and therefore the mere deployment of a Central Armed Police Force might not be sufficient for exercising full control over the law and order situation int he state. It is therefore the need of the hour to reconsider the implementation of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act with the mandate to deploy infantry regiments of the Indian Army to effectively tackle such a situation.
Lessons from previous conflicts to prevent law and order crisis
It must be understood that in a democratic process of governance, the rule of law is given the highest significance, however, it must be understood that in the present case, it is observed that often such armed outfits have been accused of violating various rules and procedures established by the law. Given the existing situation, it is not too difficult to conclude that armed outfits are able to overshadow elected government executives and force them to succumb to their demands in the manner theu desire. This entire examples sets an extremely disturbing precedent from the perspective that every time such an armed outfit attempted an act of this magnitude and scale in the past, the outcome had been either complete breakdown or law and order situation or long prevailing curfews as the state response which eventually affects the common populate at large.
In order to elaborate further about the threats from such militias, we can consider the example of Swat Valley in Pakistan (2009) where the Taliban had summoned around fifty influential people in a sharia court held by Taliban itself which included members of national assembly, members of provincial assembly and many other top ranked individuals. While many people defied the order, they still had to flee the state and the ones that presented themselves definitely posed a grave concern to the law and order situation for the military which claimed that the entire area had been sanitised from any militant threats. The outcome of this struggle for control was long curfews that affected the civilians residing in the region and a deteriorating economy that triggered further militancy.
Conclusion
The Government of India understands it well that in order to further the initiatives such as Act East Policy, a stable and peaceful Manipur is extremely important. It must be understood that various law and order problems in the mainland as well as peripheral areas arise from the challenges to the internal security faced by the districts adjoining the India-Myanmar Border. However, the ongoing problem of internal disturbance due to various proxies attempting to take control over an elected government adds exceptionally to the existing internal security challenges. The appropriate response from the state government and security forces in this matter is the need of the hour therefore because the hope of return towards normalcy is already taking toll in the valley due to communal strife.
Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Centre for Internal Security Analyses or any of the stakeholders associated with it. Readers discretion is strongly advised.