From the Maritime Security Desk

Introduction 

Aim of this column is to give a fair understanding to readers on maritime security issues that directly or indirectly affect India both from the security and economic perspectives. A regular column is being instituted in the form of short briefs. As a pilot venture,the author has chosen the US / Israel / Iran war which affect the region. Views expressed are independent and reflect the opinion of the author with no bias to any country / institution. Also, it does not reflect the stand of Indian Government in any way .

Recent Developments 

Operation Epic Fury started on 28 February 2026. Since then, I have chronicled regular summaries on the important aspects of this war.  I presume the readers are aware of the complex geopolitical situation that led to this war. Hence, I will start with the aftermath of the first strike on Iran which killed the supreme leader and his close family leading to his son Mojithaba Khemeni taking over as supreme leader. Please read the summary of important events.

• 12 March 2026 – First message from the new Supreme leader 

  • Strait of Hormuz to be closed as a tool to exert economic pressure. 

  • Closure of all US bases in West Asia.

  • Call to avenge the death of martyrs. 

  • Seeking compensation for the damage caused in the war. 

• 15 March 2026 – A look at US / Isreal military strategy

  • The US military operations revealed that they had no clear political / strategic objectives which is achievable as it was not based on credible intelligence inputs.

  • POTUS relied a lot upon the assurance given by Bibi Netanyahu, the Israel Prime minister that the regime will collapse once the supreme leader and the top hierarchy are eliminated which did not happen .

  • Whereas Bibi had a singular aim which was to destroy Iran. 

  • US / Israel grossly miscalculated Iranian response as the war headed for the 15 th day. 

  • Although the US claimed that they had obliterated Iran ‘s military capabilities, the latter seemed to be resilient and delivering hard blows across Israel and Gulf countries/ West Asia. 

  • Although the US aim was to destroy Iran ‘s nuclear program and seize control of 450 kg of enriched Uranium, the latter had relocated the nuclear material to an underground storage facility 100 M deep. It may be noted that no bunker penetrating bombs including GBU 57 A / B can penetrate beyond 100 feet. 

  • Meanwhile Air early warning systems and Air defense missile systems in GCC countries were destroyed in the counter attacks by Iran.

• 18 March 2026 – US deployment of forces 

  • USS Tripoli amphibious group (USS Tripoli (amphibious assault ship), USS New Orleans & USS Santiago (Landing Platform Dock) was deployed in the region. This group also embarked on the 31 Expeditionary Group (2500 Marines). The task of the group was to carry out an amphibious assault on Kharg / Qeshm islands which are of immense strategic value for Iran. 

  • US ground forces (on landing) would have two main objectives 1 Seize enriched Uranium 2 Take control of the main oil infrastructure at Kharg island. 5 main challenges to achieve the objectives – 1 landing phase 2 Consolidation in the absence of a suitable beach head 3 Sustenance of landed troops 4 Op logistics 5 Exit strategy on completion of achievement of objectives. Difficult decision for the US.

• 25 March 2026 – Conditions by both parties 

  • Iran laid down 5 conditions (highlighted below) to end the war which was rejected by US.

  • Cease all overt & covert attacks 

  • Security guarantee of no more attacks 

  • Pay compensation for all the wartime damage

  • Will continue with the nuclear program for peaceful use and hence the issue is nonnegotiable. 

  • Sovereign rights over the strait of Hormuz.

  • US proposed a 15 points proposal which was rejected by Iran. 

  • Since neither party agreed with the proposals, and hence there was no progress towards any peace agreement. 

  • Meanwhile a new front opened with Houthis carrying out sporadic attacks on shipping and Saudi oil facilities in the strait of Bab el Mandeb/ Red sea inaddition to the attacks by Iran on shipping transiting through the strait of Hormuz. 

• 17 June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum – Main Points

  • Immediate ceasefire and permanent termination of military operations across all fronts

  • Lifting of US blockade of Iranian ports for 60 days to negotiate a final deal. 

  • Release of frozen Iranian funds.

  • Iran affirmed that it would not develop nuclear weapons.

  • Agreement collapsed in July 2026 following renewed Iranian attacks on tankers in the strait of Hormuz. 

  • View above status quo prevailed.

•    27 October 2026 - Epic Fury 2 

  • Now we enter the second phase of this war. 

  • Prez Trump ‘s rhetoric of commencing operation Epic Fury 2 is the big question which is the focus of the strategic community currently.

  • There are two important issues that would affect the decision-making process of US 

  • Firstly, the outcome of Israel elections which did not go in favor of Bibi. 

  • Secondly, for the US midterm elections, the results will be out on 04 November. No predictions for now, however the odds are in favor of Democrats getting a majority in the house of representatives and senate as per poll predictions

• 30 October 2026 

  • Hectic diplomatic efforts are on with Vice Prez Vance and Qatar mediating to diffuse the current situation with both parties maintaining a rigid stand. 

  • Most optimistic outcome of these efforts point towards “buying more time towards future negotiations by all stakeholders. 

  • If US Prez decides to go ahead with the next phase of war, US forces are well positioned to undertake the operations which could be four pronged. 1 Heavy bombing by US air power to target Iranian oil / military infrastructure. 2 Ground assault by US marines & special forces (SEALS) to eliminate the hierarchy in power 3 Assault on Kharg island / Queshm island by special forces to take control of oil / strategic installations. 4 US SEALS operation in Pickaxe Mountain to destroy nuclear infrastructure and annex enriched Uranium.

  • Very risky and ambitious military operations which can result in huge civilian and military causalities on both sides. 

  • Iran is also well prepared to counter the US offensive and await the landing troops to trap and annihilate them.

  • Also, GCC countries and Israel would be subjected to heavy counter attacks by Iran. 

  • The earlier round of hostilities failed to achieve any of the US strategic objectives and the author is of the view that the objectives cannot be achieved in the second round of hostilities as well. Even a short duration of a spike in military operations can spiral to alarming and catastrophic levels notwithstanding the wide disparity in military capabilities of both sides.

  • Bottom line – This war cannot be won in the battlefield; Diplomacy must step in!!

Let us hope good sense prevails!!!!

Watch this space for latest inputs !!